One of my main annoyances with the MLS, as a league overall,
is its resilience of revert back to a balanced schedule similar to the 2010 and
2011 seasons. For those that do not know
a balanced schedule is one where every team plays every other team the same
amount of times throughout the season. For example in a 20 team league Team A
would play all other 19 teams once at home and once away for a total of 38
games. This schedule structure is used
in almost every other soccer league around the world. MLS and other North American professional
sports leagues have decided to use unbalanced schedules, which usually have a
focus on Conference and Divisional rival games.
This creates an inequality in the “difficulty” of each teams schedule
and I think this leads to an unfair advantage for a few teams, which could be
easily eliminated by changing to a balanced schedule.
First, let’s take a look at the schedule structures the MLS has
used in the last few seasons when not using a balanced schedule*.
2008
The 14 teams were split into two seven-team conferences. Each team
played 30 games that were evenly divided between home and away games. Each team
played every other team twice, home and away, for a total of 26 games. The
remaining four games were played against four regional rivals, two at home and
two away.
2009
The 15 teams were split into two conferences. Each team played a total
of 30 games that were evenly divided between home and away games. Each team
played every other team twice, home and away, for a total of 28 games. The
remaining two games were played against two conference rivals, one at home and
one away.
2012
Each of the 19
teams plays a 34-game regular season schedule, one that employs an unbalanced
format that gives greater emphasis on in-conference matchups
Western Conference clubs will play each conference rival three times,
and play once against each Eastern Conference club.
Eastern Conference clubs will play seven of their conference rivals
three times, the remaining two conference rivals twice, and each Western
Conference club once.
*I could only find full schedule breakdowns for the seasons
2008-2012
So you can see when not using a balanced schedule there can
be a large difference in the composition of each team’s individual schedule.
To find out if there is a “difficulty” difference in the
schedules of each team, because of the unbalanced schedule, I will find the
“difficulty score” of each team and apply that score to how many times a team
played them to find a total difficulty score of their season. Comparison of the range of difficulty in
seasons with a balanced schedule and one’s with an unbalanced schedule will
show if the different schedule setup leads to unfairness.
Explanation of the Math
For each season I will add up the total points earned by
every team and divide by the number of teams to find an “average” MLS team for
that season. Then take that “average”
MLS team points and use it as the denominator against each individual team’s
points total. This new difficulty score
of each team will be applied to each individual teams schedule and find a total
difficulty score of the season.
For example if Team A had 43 points in the season but the
“average” MLS team has 45.2 points
Team A would have a difficulty score of
43/45.2= 0.9513274336283186
If Team B played Team A twice in that season the difficulty
of that would be
0.9513274336283186*2=
1.902654867256637
You would then continue this throughout Team B’s entire
schedule to find their season’s difficulty.
This would then be done for every team that season to see the collective
difficulties of each team.
2008 Season
Schedule Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
Columbus
|
29.09947644
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Houston
|
29.17277487
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
Chicago
|
29.68586387
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
Salt Lake
|
29.71029668
|
7
|
-3
|
5
|
Chivas
|
29.73472949
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
Colorado
|
30.05235602
|
9
|
-3
|
7
|
LA
|
30.05235602
|
13
|
-6
|
8
|
DC United
|
30.17452007
|
10
|
-2
|
9
|
FC Dallas
|
30.19895288
|
11
|
-2
|
10
|
NE Revs
|
30.34554974
|
4
|
6
|
11
|
KC
|
30.36998255
|
6
|
5
|
12
|
New York
|
30.36998255
|
8
|
4
|
13
|
San Jose
|
30.46771379
|
14
|
-1
|
14
|
Toronto
|
30.56544503
|
12
|
2
|
The schedule difficulty range of this season was 1.465968586.
2009 Season
Schedule Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
NE Revs
|
29.25742574
|
7
|
-6
|
2
|
LA
|
29.48019802
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
Seattle
|
29.52970297
|
4
|
-1
|
4
|
Houston
|
29.57920792
|
3
|
1
|
5
|
Columbus
|
29.65346535
|
1
|
4
|
6
|
Toronto
|
29.8019802
|
12
|
-6
|
7
|
DC United
|
29.95049505
|
10
|
-3
|
8
|
Chicago
|
29.97524752
|
5
|
3
|
9
|
Colorado
|
29.97524752
|
9
|
0
|
10
|
Chivas
|
30.12376238
|
6
|
4
|
11
|
Salt Lake
|
30.1980198
|
8
|
3
|
12
|
FC Dallas
|
30.24752475
|
11
|
1
|
13
|
KC
|
30.3960396
|
13
|
0
|
14
|
San Jose
|
30.86633663
|
14
|
0
|
15
|
New York
|
30.96534653
|
15
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range of this season was 1.707920792.
2010 Season
Schedule Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
LA
|
29.14803625
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Salt Lake
|
29.29305136
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
New York
|
29.5347432
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
FC Dallas
|
29.58308157
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
Columbus
|
29.58308157
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
Seattle
|
29.67975831
|
6
|
0
|
7
|
Colorado
|
29.77643505
|
7
|
0
|
8
|
San Jose
|
29.77643505
|
8
|
0
|
9
|
KC
|
30.11480363
|
9
|
0
|
10
|
Chicago
|
30.25981873
|
10
|
0
|
11
|
Toronto
|
30.3081571
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
Houston
|
30.40483384
|
12
|
0
|
13
|
NE Revs
|
30.45317221
|
13
|
0
|
14
|
Philly
|
30.50151057
|
14
|
0
|
15
|
Chivas
|
30.64652568
|
15
|
0
|
16
|
DC United
|
30.93655589
|
16
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range of this season was 1.788519637.
2011 Season
Schedule Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
LA
|
33.02955665
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Seattle
|
33.20689655
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
Salt Lake
|
33.65024631
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
FC Dallas
|
33.69458128
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
KC
|
33.73891626
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
Houston
|
33.82758621
|
6
|
0
|
7
|
Colorado
|
33.82758621
|
7
|
0
|
8
|
Philly
|
33.87192118
|
8
|
0
|
9
|
Columbus
|
33.91625616
|
9
|
0
|
10
|
New York
|
33.96059113
|
10
|
0
|
11
|
Chicago
|
34.09359606
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
Portland
|
34.13793104
|
12
|
0
|
13
|
DC United
|
34.27093596
|
13
|
0
|
14
|
San Jose
|
34.31527094
|
14
|
0
|
15
|
Chivas
|
34.40394089
|
15
|
0
|
16
|
Toronto
|
34.53694581
|
16
|
0
|
17
|
NE Revs
|
34.75862069
|
17
|
0
|
18
|
Vancouver
|
34.75862069
|
18
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range of this season was 1.729064039.
2012 Season
Schedule
Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule
Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
San
Jose
|
32.50448431
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
DC
United
|
33.01569507
|
3
|
-1
|
3
|
Salt
Lake
|
33.07959641
|
5
|
-2
|
4
|
Seattle
|
33.14349776
|
7
|
-3
|
5
|
KC
|
33.25
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
LA
|
33.27130045
|
8
|
-2
|
7
|
Chicago
|
33.50560538
|
6
|
1
|
8
|
Columbus
|
33.61210762
|
10
|
-2
|
9
|
Vancouver
|
33.97421525
|
11
|
-2
|
10
|
New
York
|
34.03811659
|
4
|
6
|
11
|
Houston
|
34.03811659
|
9
|
2
|
12
|
Dallas
|
34.22982063
|
13
|
-1
|
13
|
Colorado
|
34.35762332
|
14
|
-1
|
14
|
Portland
|
34.54932736
|
17
|
-3
|
15
|
Montreal
|
34.6132287
|
12
|
3
|
16
|
Philly
|
34.74103139
|
15
|
1
|
17
|
Chivas
|
34.80493274
|
18
|
-1
|
18
|
NE
Revs
|
35.42264574
|
16
|
2
|
19
|
Toronto
|
35.84865471
|
19
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range of this
season was 3.3441704.
Schedule Difficulty Range Table
Year
|
Schedule
Difficulty Range
|
2008
|
1.465968586
|
2009
|
1.707920792
|
2010
|
1.788519637
|
2011
|
1.729064039
|
2012
|
3.3441704
|
Analysis
When starting out my theory was that
balanced schedules would lead to a smaller range in the difficulty of
schedules. If we look at 2010 through
2012 my theory holds up with 2010 and 2011 being balanced schedule seasons
having smaller ranges then 2012, an unbalanced schedule season, having a larger
range than the balanced seasons.
The problem with my theory starts in
2008 and 2009 where the range in those seasons was less than the range in the
two balanced schedule seasons. I
theorized that this happened because in the 2008 and 2009 seasons each team
only played 30 games while from 2010-2012 they played 34 games. So to see if my theory held up I adjusted the
2008 and 2009 season to be balanced schedules to compare the ranges of the
unbalanced and balanced versions of 2008 and 2009 seasons.
2008 Adjusted Season
Schedule
Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule
Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
Columbus
|
25.07630522
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Houston
|
25.58232932
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
NE
Revs
|
25.58232932
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
Chicago
|
25.80722892
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
Chivas
|
26.03212852
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
New
York
|
26.03212852
|
6
|
0
|
7
|
KC
|
26.08835341
|
7
|
0
|
8
|
Colorado
|
26.08835341
|
8
|
0
|
9
|
Dallas
|
26.08835341
|
9
|
0
|
10
|
Salt
Lake
|
26.14457831
|
10
|
0
|
11
|
Toronto
|
26.25702811
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
San
Jose
|
26.31325301
|
12
|
0
|
13
|
LA
|
26.42570281
|
13
|
0
|
14
|
DC
United
|
26.48192771
|
14
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range for this
adjusted season was 1.236947791.
2009 Adjusted Season
Schedule
Rank
|
Team
|
Schedule
Difficulty
|
Standings
|
Difference
|
1
|
Seattle
|
27.50883392
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
Columbus
|
27.61484099
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
Houston
|
27.61484099
|
3
|
0
|
4
|
Chicago
|
27.66784453
|
4
|
0
|
5
|
Chivas
|
27.66784453
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
LA
|
27.77385159
|
6
|
0
|
7
|
NE
Revs
|
27.82685513
|
7
|
0
|
8
|
Colorado
|
27.87985866
|
8
|
0
|
9
|
Toronto
|
27.93286219
|
9
|
0
|
10
|
Salt
Lake
|
28.03886926
|
10
|
0
|
11
|
DC
United
|
28.09187279
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
Dallas
|
28.25088339
|
12
|
0
|
13
|
KC
|
28.46289753
|
13
|
0
|
14
|
San
Jose
|
28.5689046
|
14
|
0
|
15
|
New
York
|
29.09893993
|
15
|
0
|
The schedule difficulty range for this
adjusted season was 1.590106007.
The new adjusted seasons show that if these
seasons were balanced schedules there would have been less disparity in the
schedule difficulty, which creates a league where the best teams rise to the top
not the ones who had a relatively easier schedule.
The Effect of Unbalanced Schedules
2008
Top Western Conference teams got an advantage
because they were able to play the lower seeded Western Conference teams more
and did not have to play the Top Eastern Conference as much as most of the
Eastern Conference. If a balanced
schedule was used my adjusted season projected that Colorado Rapids would have
made the playoffs instead of Real Salt Lake this year.
2009
New England, Toronto, and DC United all
got an advantage this season because they were able to play the lower seeded
Eastern Conference teams more. While Columbus,
Chicago, and Chivas were all at a disadvantage because of having to play higher
seed teams more often. Again, If a
balance schedule used my adjusted season projected that Colorado would have
made the playoffs instead of Real Salt Lake, who went on to win MLS Cup this
year and have become a powerhouse in the MLS who knows what would have happened
to them if they did not win the Cup that year.
2012
The top Eastern Conference were at a
huge advantage because most of them were able to play the lowly teams in the
bottom half of the Eastern Conference three times each, while the Western
Conference which was collectively stronger this year than the East did not get
to beat up on the bottom half of Eastern Conference as often. This gave the top Eastern Conference teams’ inflated
final standings positions.
Conclusion
In a league where playoff qualification,
home field advantage in the playoffs, draft order, allocation ranking¹, and amount
of allocation money received², the re-entry process rankings³, and lottery
rankings4 are all based on the previous season’s standings having
unfair scheduling affects every part of a team not just qualifying for the
playoffs. MLS, being a league that has
all of these player acquisition mechanisms related to the standings, needs to change
back to a balanced schedule to eliminate the systematic inequality created by
an unbalanced schedule which gives a few teams an advantage.
¹used to determine who has first priority
to acquire USMNT member who signs with MLS after playing abroad, or a former
MLS player who is returning to the league after going to a club abroad for a
transfer fee
²you can see an explanation of
allocation money here http://viewfrommyroom2.blogspot.ca/2013/07/and-there-goes-another.html
³a form of free agency where all
players who were not resigned by their clubs are put into a quasi-draft
4used
to assign Generation Adidas5 players who signed with the league
after the draft or players who were offer contracts but did not sign them prior
to the draft
5players who’s salary does not count
against the cap
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